Nova Ltd. (NVMI) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NVMI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($111.53) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $65.83 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $87.40 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $111.53 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $117.93 | |
Current Price
$488.58
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$87.40
model output — not a price target
NVMI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVMI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $162.1M · 0.03B shares · net debt $584.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$154.57
-68.4% vs $488.58
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $488.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $197 | $207 | $218 | $231 | $246 |
| 10.5% | $167 | $174 | $182 | $191 | $202 |
| 11.5% | $143 | $149 | $155 | $161 | $168 |
| 12.5% | $124 | $128 | $133 | $138 | $143 |
| 13.5% | $109 | $112 | $115 | $119 | $123 |
About Nova Ltd.
Nova Ltd. is a global innovator specializing in the design, development, production, and sale of sophisticated process control systems vital for semiconductor manufacturing. Its extensive reach covers key regions such as Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, and Korea, in addition to other international markets. The company's advanced product range includes a suite of metrology platforms, enabling precise measurements of dimensions, films, materials, and chemical compositions. These capabilities are crucial for ensuring meticulous process control throughout various stages of semiconductor fabrication, including lithography, etching, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. Nova serves diverse segments of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, providing solutions to leading logic, foundry, and memory producers, as well as manufacturers of process equipment. Headquartered in Rehovot, Israel, and established in 1993, the company changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021, having previously been known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Gabriel Waisman