TGM's two-stage DCF values Nutex Health, Inc. (NUTX) between $88.86 and $125.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$218.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $88.86 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $106.32 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $125.85 |
Current Price
$218.40
Market-Implied Growth
+41.1%/yr
vs +37.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$88.86 – $125.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NUTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $28.4M · 0.01B shares · net cash $142.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$106.32
-51.3% vs $218.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $218.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $121 | $127 | $133 | $141 | $149 |
| 10.5% | $109 | $113 | $118 | $123 | $130 |
| 11.5% | $99.41 | $103 | $106 | $110 | $115 |
| 12.5% | $91.45 | $94.06 | $96.92 | $100 | $104 |
| 13.5% | $84.86 | $86.97 | $89.27 | $91.78 | $94.54 |
