TGM's two-stage DCF values Nucor Corporation (NUE) between $133.72 and $226.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $172.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$256.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 12.5% | $133.72 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 11.5% | $172.97 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 10.5% | $226.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $79.09 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.40
Market-Implied Growth
+19.8%/yr
vs -0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$133.72 – $226.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NUE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 0.23B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$172.97
-32.5% vs $256.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $206 | $218 | $232 | $247 | $266 |
| 10.5% | $179 | $188 | $199 | $210 | $223 |
| 11.5% | $158 | $165 | $173 | $182 | $192 |
| 12.5% | $141 | $146 | $153 | $159 | $167 |
| 13.5% | $126 | $131 | $136 | $141 | $147 |
