Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) between $32.49 and $70.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $47.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$65.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $32.49 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 9.4% | $47.19 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 8.4% | $70.31 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $70.78 | |
Current Price
$65.48
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs +0.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.49 – $70.31
model output — not a price target
NTR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NTR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.48B shares · net debt $11.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$48.13
-26.5% vs $65.48
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $65.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $66.25 | $71.39 | $77.58 | $85.18 | $94.72 |
| 8.4% | $52.95 | $56.36 | $60.35 | $65.08 | $70.78 |
| 9.4% | $43.04 | $45.41 | $48.13 | $51.27 | $54.94 |
| 10.4% | $35.36 | $37.07 | $39.00 | $41.18 | $43.69 |
| 11.4% | $29.25 | $30.51 | $31.92 | $33.50 | $35.28 |
About Nutrien Ltd.
Nutrien Ltd., a company established in 2017 and based in Saskatoon, Canada, functions as a principal supplier of essential agricultural resources and associated services. The firm furnishes vital crop inputs, including various fertilizer compounds like potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate, in addition to offering financial solutions to its clientele. Its operations involve the extensive distribution of crop-related products such as nutrients, protection agents, seeds, and general merchandise. This is facilitated through a vast network of nearly 2,000 retail establishments situated across the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. Beyond its retail footprint, Nutrien also engages directly with agricultural producers, delivering personalized services through its numerous farm centers located throughout North America, South America, and Australia.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- CEO
- Kenneth A. Seitz