TGM's two-stage DCF values Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) between $32.57 and $70.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $47.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$69.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $32.57 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 9.4% | $47.30 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 8.4% | $70.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$69.07
Market-Implied Growth
+9.5%/yr
vs +0.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.57 – $70.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NTR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.48B shares · net debt $11.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$47.30
-31.5% vs $69.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $62.11 | $68.55 | $76.29 | $85.79 | $97.70 |
| 8.4% | $49.61 | $54.10 | $59.34 | $65.55 | $73.02 |
| 9.4% | $40.27 | $43.55 | $47.30 | $51.64 | $56.70 |
| 10.4% | $33.03 | $35.52 | $38.32 | $41.48 | $45.11 |
| 11.4% | $27.26 | $29.20 | $31.35 | $33.75 | $36.45 |
