TGM's two-stage DCF values Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) between $61.93 and $123.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $85.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$73.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 8.5% | $61.93 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 7.5% | $85.61 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 6.5% | $123.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$73.41
Market-Implied Growth
+11.8%/yr
vs +15.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$61.93 – $123.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NTNX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $673.9M · 0.27B shares · net debt $607.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$85.61
+16.6% vs $73.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $73.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $113 | $128 | $148 | $175 | $217 |
| 6.5% | $88.82 | $97.71 | $109 | $123 | $142 |
| 7.5% | $72.76 | $78.60 | $85.61 | $94.17 | $105 |
| 8.5% | $61.32 | $65.41 | $70.18 | $75.81 | $82.55 |
| 9.5% | $52.78 | $55.77 | $59.19 | $63.13 | $67.72 |
