TGM's two-stage DCF values NetEase, Inc. (NTES) between $132.15 and $236.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $173.52. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$117.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.8%/yr | 9.1% | $132.15 |
| Base case | 6.8%/yr | 8.1% | $173.52 |
| Optimistic | 9.8%/yr | 7.1% | $236.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $204.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$117.21
Market-Implied Growth
-3.1%/yr
vs +18.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$132.15 – $236.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NTES (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8B · 0.64B shares · net cash $6.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$173.52
+48.0% vs $117.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $117.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $217 | $239 | $266 | $303 | $354 |
| 7.1% | $179 | $193 | $210 | $231 | $257 |
| 8.1% | $153 | $162 | $174 | $187 | $203 |
| 9.1% | $134 | $140 | $148 | $157 | $168 |
| 10.1% | $119 | $124 | $130 | $136 | $144 |
