TGM's two-stage DCF values Nortech Systems Incorporated (NSYS) between $5.45 and $12.42 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$11.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 8.5% | $5.45 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 7.5% | $8.13 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 6.5% | $12.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$11.25
Market-Implied Growth
+10.4%/yr
vs +4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.45 – $12.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NSYS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3M · 0.00B shares · net debt $5.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$8.13
-27.7% vs $11.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $11.11 | $12.72 | $14.88 | $17.89 | $22.41 |
| 6.5% | $8.48 | $9.45 | $10.66 | $12.22 | $14.29 |
| 7.5% | $6.73 | $7.36 | $8.13 | $9.07 | $10.23 |
| 8.5% | $5.47 | $5.92 | $6.45 | $7.06 | $7.80 |
| 9.5% | $4.54 | $4.87 | $5.24 | $5.67 | $6.18 |
