TGM's two-stage DCF values Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) between $21.22 and $31.77 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.2%/yr | 12.5% | $21.22 |
| Base case | 12.2%/yr | 11.5% | $25.71 |
| Optimistic | 15.2%/yr | 10.5% | $31.77 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $27.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.53
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs +21.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.22 – $31.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NSSC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $47.6M · 0.04B shares · net cash $126.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$25.71
-29.6% vs $36.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $29.50 | $30.89 | $32.47 | $34.30 | $36.43 |
| 10.5% | $26.43 | $27.48 | $28.66 | $30.00 | $31.53 |
| 11.5% | $23.98 | $24.80 | $25.71 | $26.72 | $27.86 |
| 12.5% | $21.98 | $22.63 | $23.35 | $24.14 | $25.02 |
| 13.5% | $20.32 | $20.85 | $21.43 | $22.06 | $22.75 |
