Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NSC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($103.39) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$350.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 11.4% | $35.30 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 10.4% | $63.78 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 9.4% | $103.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $125.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$350.66
Market-Implied Growth
+37.5%/yr
vs +10.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$63.78
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NSC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.22B shares · net debt $15.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$63.78
-81.8% vs $350.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $350.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $88.74 | $98.68 | $110 | $124 | $141 |
| 9.4% | $68.09 | $75.35 | $83.65 | $93.23 | $104 |
| 10.4% | $52.11 | $57.60 | $63.78 | $70.78 | $78.79 |
| 11.4% | $39.37 | $43.65 | $48.39 | $53.70 | $59.66 |
| 12.4% | $29.00 | $32.40 | $36.14 | $40.26 | $44.85 |
