Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NSC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($95.23) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$323.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.9%/yr | 11.4% | $30.45 |
| Base case | 5.9%/yr | 10.4% | $57.54 |
| Optimistic | 8.9%/yr | 9.4% | $95.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $123.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$323.43
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +8.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$57.54
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NSC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.22B shares · net debt $15.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$57.54
-82.2% vs $323.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $323.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $81.15 | $90.55 | $102 | $115 | $130 |
| 9.4% | $61.62 | $68.49 | $76.34 | $85.40 | $95.99 |
| 10.4% | $46.50 | $51.70 | $57.54 | $64.17 | $71.74 |
| 11.4% | $34.45 | $38.49 | $42.99 | $48.00 | $53.64 |
| 12.4% | $24.63 | $27.85 | $31.38 | $35.29 | $39.62 |
