Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NRP
Even the conservative scenario ($367.16) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 8.5% | $367.16 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 7.5% | $501.66 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 6.5% | $716.68 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 14, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $338.09 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$104.56
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$501.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NRP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $257.6M · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$501.66
+379.8% vs $104.56
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $104.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $653 | $735 | $845 | $998 | $1228 |
| 6.5% | $519 | $569 | $630 | $710 | $815 |
| 7.5% | $430 | $463 | $502 | $549 | $609 |
| 8.5% | $367 | $389 | $416 | $447 | $485 |
| 9.5% | $319 | $336 | $355 | $377 | $402 |
