National Research Corporation (NRC) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values National Research Corporation (NRC) between $11.13 and $23.02 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $11.13 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.15 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $23.02 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $13.24 | |
Current Price
$20.81
Market-Implied Growth
+8.3%/yr
vs +0.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$11.13 – $23.02
model output — not a price target
NRC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $20.8M · 0.02B shares · net debt $74.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.82
-28.8% vs $20.81
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $21.04 | $23.52 | $26.82 | $31.44 | $38.37 |
| 6.5% | $16.14 | $17.55 | $19.32 | $21.60 | $24.63 |
| 7.5% | $12.87 | $13.76 | $14.82 | $16.12 | $17.75 |
| 8.5% | $10.54 | $11.13 | $11.82 | $12.64 | $13.62 |
| 9.5% | $8.79 | $9.20 | $9.67 | $10.22 | $10.86 |
About National Research Corporation
National Research Corporation (NRC) empowers healthcare organizations across the United States and Canada with data-driven analytics and actionable insights to enhance both patient and employee experiences. Through a comprehensive suite of subscription-based solutions, NRC supplies crucial information and analysis, addressing vital aspects such as the overall patient journey, service recovery initiatives, effective transitions of care, health risk assessments, fostering employee engagement, and enhancing reputation management and brand loyalty. Beyond these, NRC provides market intelligence to help organizations understand brand awareness, public perception, and competitive positioning. They offer advanced segmentation tools to analyze community needs, wants, and behaviors in real-time. Specialized health risk assessment tools are available to help clients pinpoint and support high-risk populations, fostering preventative care strategies and wellness initiatives. Similarly, transition management solutions assist in identifying and managing at-risk patients during care changes, aiming to reduce readmissions and ensure smooth, satisfactory transitions. NRC also offers transparency tools, empowering healthcare providers to present clear organizational information to consumers, thereby supporting informed decision-making. Furthermore, governance solutions are tailored for the leadership of non-profit hospitals and health systems, including boards of directors, executives, and physician leaders. Their clientele includes integrated health systems, post-acute care providers, and healthcare payer organizations. Established in 1981, National Research Corporation maintains its headquarters in Lincoln, Nebraska.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Information Services
- CEO
- Trent Green