TGM's two-stage DCF values NRC Health (NRC) between $11.13 and $23.02 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$21.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $11.13 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.15 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $23.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$21.38
Market-Implied Growth
+8.8%/yr
vs -0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$11.13 – $23.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $20.8M · 0.02B shares · net debt $74.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.15
-29.1% vs $21.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $21.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $20.57 | $23.52 | $27.44 | $32.92 | $41.15 |
| 6.5% | $15.78 | $17.55 | $19.76 | $22.60 | $26.37 |
| 7.5% | $12.59 | $13.76 | $15.15 | $16.86 | $18.99 |
| 8.5% | $10.31 | $11.13 | $12.08 | $13.20 | $14.55 |
| 9.5% | $8.60 | $9.20 | $9.89 | $10.67 | $11.59 |
