Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NOVT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($50.31) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$149.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.7%/yr | 12.5% | $32.38 |
| Base case | 10.7%/yr | 11.5% | $40.00 |
| Optimistic | 13.7%/yr | 10.5% | $50.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $40.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$149.10
Market-Implied Growth
+48.2%/yr
vs +10.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$40.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NOVT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $85.6M · 0.04B shares · net cash $80.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.00
-73.2% vs $149.10
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $149.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $46.40 | $48.74 | $51.42 | $54.50 | $58.09 |
| 10.5% | $41.22 | $42.99 | $44.99 | $47.25 | $49.83 |
| 11.5% | $37.08 | $38.47 | $40.00 | $41.72 | $43.64 |
| 12.5% | $33.71 | $34.81 | $36.02 | $37.36 | $38.84 |
| 13.5% | $30.90 | $31.80 | $32.77 | $33.84 | $35.01 |
