TGM's two-stage DCF values Nokia Oyj (NOK) between $3.74 and $6.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.63. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.1% | $3.74 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.1% | $4.63 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.1% | $6.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $5.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.60
Market-Implied Growth
+23.0%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.74 – $6.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NOK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 5.40B shares · net cash $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$4.63
-56.3% vs $10.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $5.77 | $6.34 | $7.07 | $8.03 | $9.37 |
| 7.1% | $4.78 | $5.14 | $5.59 | $6.14 | $6.84 |
| 8.1% | $4.09 | $4.34 | $4.63 | $4.98 | $5.41 |
| 9.1% | $3.58 | $3.76 | $3.97 | $4.21 | $4.49 |
| 10.1% | $3.19 | $3.32 | $3.48 | $3.65 | $3.85 |
