TGM's two-stage DCF values Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) between $180.68 and $441.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $281.12. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$572.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 8.5% | $180.68 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 7.5% | $281.12 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 6.5% | $441.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $982.22 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$572.67
Market-Implied Growth
+18.6%/yr
vs +6.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$180.68 – $441.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NOC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.14B shares · net debt $13.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$281.12
-50.9% vs $572.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $572.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $393 | $454 | $535 | $648 | $818 |
| 6.5% | $294 | $331 | $376 | $435 | $513 |
| 7.5% | $228 | $252 | $281 | $316 | $360 |
| 8.5% | $181 | $198 | $218 | $241 | $269 |
| 9.5% | $146 | $158 | $173 | $189 | $208 |
