Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NET
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($4.04) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $0.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $1.94 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $4.04 |
Current Price
$284.41
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.94
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NET (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $157.4M · 0.35B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1.94
-99.3% vs $284.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $284.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.57 | $4.17 | $4.85 | $5.63 | $6.55 |
| 10.5% | $2.25 | $2.70 | $3.21 | $3.79 | $4.44 |
| 11.5% | $1.20 | $1.55 | $1.94 | $2.38 | $2.87 |
| 12.5% | $0.35 | $0.63 | $0.94 | $1.27 | $1.65 |
| 13.5% | N/A | N/A | $0.11 | $0.38 | $0.68 |
