TGM's two-stage DCF values nCino, Inc. (NCNO) between $12.73 and $24.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $12.73 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $17.87 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $24.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 15, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.81
Market-Implied Growth
+21.6%/yr
vs +22.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.73 – $24.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NCNO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $53.2M · 0.11B shares · net debt $125.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.87
-14.1% vs $20.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $23.85 | $27.09 | $31.40 | $37.44 | $46.50 |
| 6.5% | $18.57 | $20.51 | $22.93 | $26.05 | $30.20 |
| 7.5% | $15.06 | $16.34 | $17.87 | $19.73 | $22.06 |
| 8.5% | $12.57 | $13.46 | $14.50 | $15.73 | $17.20 |
| 9.5% | $10.70 | $11.36 | $12.10 | $12.96 | $13.96 |
