TGM's two-stage DCF values nCino, Inc. (NCNO) between $12.49 and $24.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.47. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.6% | $12.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.6% | $17.47 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.6% | $24.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.92 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.95
Market-Implied Growth
+18.6%/yr
vs +21.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.49 – $24.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NCNO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $53.2M · 0.11B shares · net debt $125.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.47
-2.7% vs $17.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $23.20 | $26.26 | $30.31 | $35.91 | $44.17 |
| 6.6% | $18.16 | $20.01 | $22.31 | $25.26 | $29.15 |
| 7.6% | $14.78 | $16.00 | $17.47 | $19.25 | $21.47 |
| 8.6% | $12.36 | $13.22 | $14.22 | $15.40 | $16.82 |
| 9.6% | $10.54 | $11.18 | $11.90 | $12.73 | $13.70 |
