TGM's two-stage DCF values Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) between $22.12 and $35.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.58. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $22.12 |
| Base case | 3.5%/yr | 8.4% | $27.58 |
| Optimistic | 6.5%/yr | 7.4% | $35.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $18.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.46
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Model Scenario Range
$22.12 – $35.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NATR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $21.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $93.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$27.58
+121.3% vs $12.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $33.07 | $35.73 | $39.06 | $43.36 | $49.15 |
| 7.4% | $28.33 | $30.06 | $32.15 | $34.70 | $37.91 |
| 8.4% | $24.96 | $26.17 | $27.58 | $29.25 | $31.27 |
| 9.4% | $22.45 | $23.33 | $24.34 | $25.51 | $26.87 |
| 10.4% | $20.50 | $21.17 | $21.92 | $22.78 | $23.75 |
