Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MYRG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($79.04) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$271.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 11.6% | $50.40 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 10.6% | $62.42 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 9.6% | $79.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $56.43 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$271.29
Market-Implied Growth
+52.9%/yr
vs +10.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$62.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MYRG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $50.8M · 0.02B shares · net cash $91.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$62.42
-77.0% vs $271.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $271.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $72.99 | $77.13 | $81.95 | $87.62 | $94.39 |
| 9.6% | $64.28 | $67.33 | $70.80 | $74.79 | $79.43 |
| 10.6% | $57.50 | $59.82 | $62.42 | $65.36 | $68.71 |
| 11.6% | $52.08 | $53.89 | $55.90 | $58.13 | $60.64 |
| 12.6% | $47.64 | $49.09 | $50.68 | $52.43 | $54.37 |
