Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MYRG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($83.51) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$333.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 11.6% | $53.08 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 10.6% | $65.85 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 9.6% | $83.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $59.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$333.22
Market-Implied Growth
+59.2%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$65.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MYRG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $50.8M · 0.02B shares · net cash $91.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$65.85
-80.2% vs $333.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $333.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $77.15 | $81.59 | $86.74 | $92.81 | $100 |
| 9.6% | $67.83 | $71.09 | $74.81 | $79.08 | $84.05 |
| 10.6% | $60.58 | $63.06 | $65.85 | $68.99 | $72.57 |
| 11.6% | $54.79 | $56.72 | $58.87 | $61.26 | $63.95 |
| 12.6% | $50.05 | $51.60 | $53.29 | $55.16 | $57.24 |
