Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MU
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.74) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $8.64 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $11.99 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $15.74 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $433.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,017.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$11.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $894.5M · 1.13B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.99
-98.8% vs $1017.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1017.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $14.89 | $15.96 | $17.18 | $18.58 | $20.21 |
| 10.5% | $12.54 | $13.35 | $14.25 | $15.28 | $16.45 |
| 11.5% | $10.67 | $11.29 | $11.99 | $12.77 | $13.64 |
| 12.5% | $9.14 | $9.64 | $10.19 | $10.79 | $11.47 |
| 13.5% | $7.88 | $8.28 | $8.72 | $9.20 | $9.73 |
