Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MTSI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($38.80) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 12.5% | $22.36 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 11.5% | $29.35 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 10.5% | $38.80 |
Current Price
$321.60
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTSI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $146.3M · 0.08B shares · net debt $388.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.35
-90.9% vs $321.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $321.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $35.31 | $37.50 | $39.99 | $42.87 | $46.22 |
| 10.5% | $30.48 | $32.14 | $34.00 | $36.10 | $38.51 |
| 11.5% | $26.63 | $27.92 | $29.35 | $30.95 | $32.74 |
| 12.5% | $23.49 | $24.52 | $25.64 | $26.89 | $28.27 |
| 13.5% | $20.88 | $21.72 | $22.62 | $23.62 | $24.71 |
