Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MTRX
Even the conservative scenario ($24.07) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 10.0% | $24.07 |
| Base case | 5.4%/yr | 9.0% | $29.11 |
| Optimistic | 8.4%/yr | 8.0% | $36.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $53.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTRX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $33.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $223.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.11
+170.4% vs $10.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $33.88 | $36.05 | $38.69 | $41.98 | $46.22 |
| 8.0% | $29.81 | $31.29 | $33.02 | $35.11 | $37.65 |
| 9.0% | $26.83 | $27.89 | $29.11 | $30.53 | $32.20 |
| 10.0% | $24.55 | $25.34 | $26.24 | $27.26 | $28.43 |
| 11.0% | $22.76 | $23.36 | $24.04 | $24.81 | $25.67 |
