TGM's two-stage DCF values Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) between $118.38 and $288.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $184.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$134.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 8.7% | $118.38 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 7.7% | $184.38 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 6.7% | $288.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $332.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$134.96
Market-Implied Growth
+3.4%/yr
vs +7.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$118.38 – $288.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $350.1M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$184.38
+36.6% vs $134.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $134.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $257 | $296 | $346 | $415 | $515 |
| 6.7% | $193 | $217 | $246 | $283 | $331 |
| 7.7% | $150 | $166 | $184 | $207 | $235 |
| 8.7% | $119 | $130 | $143 | $158 | $176 |
| 9.7% | $95.20 | $103 | $113 | $123 | $136 |
