Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MSS
Even the conservative scenario ($13.92) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $13.92 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $23.31 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $33.80 |
Current Price
$1.35
Market-Implied Growth
+1.3%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$23.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MSS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $929246 · 0.00B shares · net debt $9.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.31
+1626.4% vs $1.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $31.44 | $34.43 | $37.83 | $41.76 | $46.34 |
| 10.5% | $24.84 | $27.11 | $29.65 | $32.52 | $35.80 |
| 11.5% | $19.59 | $21.35 | $23.31 | $25.49 | $27.93 |
| 12.5% | $15.32 | $16.72 | $18.26 | $19.95 | $21.84 |
| 13.5% | $11.77 | $12.91 | $14.14 | $15.49 | $16.98 |
