TGM's two-stage DCF values MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) between $65.00 and $125.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $89.00. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$122.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.9%/yr | 9.3% | $65.00 |
| Base case | 4.9%/yr | 8.3% | $89.00 |
| Optimistic | 7.9%/yr | 7.3% | $125.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$122.01
Market-Implied Growth
+12.0%/yr
vs +5.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$65.00 – $125.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MSM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $276.1M · 0.06B shares · net debt $429.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$89.00
-27.1% vs $122.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $113 | $125 | $141 | $160 | $187 |
| 7.3% | $92.28 | $100 | $109 | $121 | $135 |
| 8.3% | $77.31 | $82.70 | $89.00 | $96.48 | $106 |
| 9.3% | $66.20 | $70.12 | $74.60 | $79.79 | $85.87 |
| 10.3% | $57.62 | $60.58 | $63.90 | $67.68 | $72.01 |
