TGM's two-stage DCF values Meridian Holdings Inc. (MRDN) between $8.70 and $13.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $10.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$11.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $8.70 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $10.91 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $13.38 |
Current Price
$11.27
Market-Implied Growth
+18.9%/yr
vs +90.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.70 – $13.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MRDN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.6M · 0.01B shares · net cash $906358
Estimated Fair Value
$10.91
-3.2% vs $11.27
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $12.83 | $13.53 | $14.33 | $15.26 | $16.33 |
| 10.5% | $11.27 | $11.81 | $12.40 | $13.08 | $13.85 |
| 11.5% | $10.04 | $10.45 | $10.91 | $11.42 | $12.00 |
| 12.5% | $9.03 | $9.36 | $9.72 | $10.12 | $10.56 |
| 13.5% | $8.19 | $8.46 | $8.75 | $9.07 | $9.42 |
