TGM's two-stage DCF values Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) between $14.51 and $17.53 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$16.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.0%/yr | 11.5% | $14.51 |
| Base case | 11.0%/yr | 10.5% | $15.77 |
| Optimistic | 14.0%/yr | 9.5% | $17.53 |
Current Price
$16.97
Market-Implied Growth
+15.7%/yr
vs +10.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.51 – $17.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $32.1M · 0.10B shares · net cash $965.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.77
-7.0% vs $16.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $16.89 | $17.34 | $17.85 | $18.46 | $19.19 |
| 9.5% | $15.97 | $16.29 | $16.66 | $17.09 | $17.59 |
| 10.5% | $15.25 | $15.50 | $15.77 | $16.09 | $16.44 |
| 11.5% | $14.68 | $14.87 | $15.08 | $15.32 | $15.59 |
| 12.5% | $14.21 | $14.37 | $14.53 | $14.72 | $14.92 |
