TGM's two-stage DCF values MPLX Lp (MPLX) between $51.65 and $122.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $78.99. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.1%/yr | 8.5% | $51.65 |
| Base case | 6.1%/yr | 7.5% | $78.99 |
| Optimistic | 9.1%/yr | 6.5% | $122.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $99.52 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$57.58
Market-Implied Growth
+0.6%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$51.65 – $122.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MPLX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.3B · 1.01B shares · net debt $23.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$78.99
+37.2% vs $57.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $110 | $126 | $148 | $179 | $226 |
| 6.5% | $82.57 | $92.54 | $105 | $121 | $142 |
| 7.5% | $64.56 | $71.12 | $78.99 | $88.60 | $101 |
| 8.5% | $51.71 | $56.31 | $61.68 | $68.00 | $75.59 |
| 9.5% | $42.09 | $45.46 | $49.32 | $53.75 | $58.93 |
