TGM's two-stage DCF values MPLX Lp (MPLX) between $47.05 and $113.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $72.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$58.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 8.5% | $47.05 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 7.5% | $72.66 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 6.5% | $113.60 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 21, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $116.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$58.41
Market-Implied Growth
+0.9%/yr
vs +1.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$47.05 – $113.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MPLX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.3B · 1.01B shares · net debt $23.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.66
+24.4% vs $58.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $58.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $101 | $117 | $137 | $166 | $209 |
| 6.5% | $75.98 | $85.27 | $96.88 | $112 | $132 |
| 7.5% | $59.20 | $65.32 | $72.66 | $81.61 | $92.79 |
| 8.5% | $47.23 | $51.52 | $56.52 | $62.42 | $69.49 |
| 9.5% | $38.26 | $41.41 | $45.00 | $49.14 | $53.96 |
