The Mosaic Company (MOS) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values The Mosaic Company (MOS) between $10.86 and $32.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 9.2% | $10.86 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 8.2% | $19.37 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 7.2% | $32.34 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $35.51 | |
Current Price
$22.52
Market-Implied Growth
+7.7%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.86 – $32.34
model output — not a price target
MOS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MOS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $526.1M · 0.32B shares · net debt $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$23.28
+3.4% vs $22.52
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $35.25 | $39.45 | $44.80 | $51.81 | $61.42 |
| 7.2% | $26.03 | $28.61 | $31.73 | $35.60 | $40.51 |
| 8.2% | $19.60 | $21.29 | $23.28 | $25.64 | $28.52 |
| 9.2% | $14.86 | $16.02 | $17.36 | $18.92 | $20.75 |
| 10.2% | $11.22 | $12.05 | $13.00 | $14.07 | $15.31 |
About The Mosaic Company
Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product. Beyond phosphates, Mosaic is a key producer and vendor of potash. This versatile mineral finds application in compound fertilizer manufacturing, animal feed formulations, industrial processes, de-icing preparations, and as a regenerant for water softeners. The company further broadens its portfolio by providing nitrogen-based crop nutrients, supplemental animal feed ingredients, and a range of supporting services. It also actively engages in the procurement and resale of phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products. Mosaic's products reach a wide array of customers, including major wholesale distributors, extensive retail chains, agricultural cooperatives, individual farmers, independent retailers, and large national accounts. Incorporated in 2004, The Mosaic Company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- CEO
- Bruce Bodine Jr.