TGM's two-stage DCF values The Mosaic Company (MOS) between $10.48 and $31.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.76. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 9.3% | $10.48 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 8.3% | $18.76 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 7.3% | $31.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.12
Market-Implied Growth
+7.9%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.48 – $31.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MOS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $526.1M · 0.32B shares · net debt $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.76
-15.2% vs $22.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $27.24 | $31.38 | $36.61 | $43.41 | $52.64 |
| 7.3% | $19.89 | $22.58 | $25.82 | $29.81 | $34.85 |
| 8.3% | $14.72 | $16.58 | $18.76 | $21.35 | $24.47 |
| 9.3% | $10.87 | $12.23 | $13.78 | $15.57 | $17.68 |
| 10.3% | $7.90 | $8.93 | $10.08 | $11.38 | $12.88 |
