The Mosaic (MOS) DCF: History & Chart

The Mosaic Company(MOS)

Agricultural Inputs · Tampa, FL

$25.06-0.13 (-0.52%)

Delayed quote: Sep 14, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

About The Mosaic Company

Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product. Beyond phosphates, Mosaic is a key producer and vendor of potash. This versatile mineral finds application in compound fertilizer manufacturing, animal feed formulations, industrial processes, de-icing preparations, and as a regenerant for water softeners. The company further broadens its portfolio by providing nitrogen-based crop nutrients, supplemental animal feed ingredients, and a range of supporting services. It also actively engages in the procurement and resale of phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products. Mosaic's products reach a wide array of customers, including major wholesale distributors, extensive retail chains, agricultural cooperatives, individual farmers, independent retailers, and large national accounts. Incorporated in 2004, The Mosaic Company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Tampa, FL

13,249 employees

www.mosaicco.com

Basic Materials / Agricultural Inputs

Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Agricultural Inputs
CEO: Bruce Bodine Jr.

View full financials

The Mosaic Company (MOS) DCF Valuation

Price is INSIDE the estimated range

$8.02

$27.13

Model scenario range

$25.06

Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values The Mosaic Company (MOS) between $8.02 and $27.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+10.0%/yr

Actual revenue growth, last 5 years+3.6%/yr

$25.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.

Scenario	FCF growth (fading to 2.5%)	Discount	Value / share
Conservative	0.6%/yr	9.3%	$8.02
Base case	3.6%/yr	8.3%	$15.62
Optimistic	6.6%/yr	7.3%	$27.13
Third-party model estimate (FMP)	independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided		$29.94

The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.

Price|PE Ratio|FCF Yield|All Metrics

Current Price

$25.06

Market-Implied Growth

+10.0%/yr

vs +3.6% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$8.02 – $27.13

model output — not a price target

MOS DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MOS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

FCF Growth Rate3.6%/yr

Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y -86.3% · 5Y -62.5% · 10Y -42.5%

Discount Rate (WACC)8.3%

Terminal Growth2.5%

Projection Years10yr

Base inputs: FCF $526.1M · 0.32B shares · net debt $4.8B

Estimated Fair Value

$15.62

-37.7% vs $25.06

Current price$25.06

Third-party model estimate (FMP)$29.94

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
6.3%	$23.32	$27.09	$31.85	$38.04	$46.43
7.3%	$16.65	$19.09	$22.04	$25.67	$30.25
8.3%	$11.94	$13.63	$15.62	$17.97	$20.81
9.3%	$8.44	$9.67	$11.08	$12.72	$14.63
10.3%	$5.73	$6.66	$7.71	$8.90	$10.27