Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MOH
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Molina Healthcare, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$216.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.1%/yr | 9.1% | $290.67 |
| Base case | 16.1%/yr | 8.1% | $387.12 |
| Optimistic | 19.1%/yr | 7.1% | $535.03 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $719.32 | |
Current Price
$216.04
Market-Implied Growth
+1.5%/yr
vs +16.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$387.12
model output — not a price target
MOH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MOH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $613.0M · 0.05B shares · net cash $482.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$626.95
+190.2% vs $216.04
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $216.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $848 | $929 | $1033 | $1171 | $1362 |
| 7.1% | $675 | $725 | $785 | $860 | $956 |
| 8.1% | $557 | $589 | $627 | $672 | $728 |
| 9.1% | $470 | $492 | $518 | $548 | $583 |
| 10.1% | $405 | $420 | $438 | $459 | $482 |
About Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare programs, in addition to state health insurance marketplaces. Its operations are strategically segmented into four main divisions: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and a general "Other" category. By the close of 2021, specifically December 31st, Molina Healthcare's network extended to approximately 5.2 million members across 18 states, all of whom qualified for Medicaid, Medicare, or other government-sponsored healthcare plans. Established in 1980, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Long Beach, California.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Plans
- CEO
- Joseph Michael Zubretsky