TGM's two-stage DCF values Altria Group, Inc. (MO) between $70.40 and $146.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $98.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$68.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $70.40 |
| Base case | 3.1%/yr | 7.5% | $98.70 |
| Optimistic | 6.1%/yr | 6.5% | $146.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $103.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$68.17
Market-Implied Growth
-4.2%/yr
vs +6.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$70.40 – $146.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.8B · 1.67B shares · net debt $21.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$98.70
+44.8% vs $68.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $68.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $132 | $149 | $173 | $206 | $256 |
| 6.5% | $103 | $113 | $127 | $144 | $167 |
| 7.5% | $83.17 | $90.23 | $98.70 | $109 | $122 |
| 8.5% | $69.35 | $74.31 | $80.07 | $86.88 | $95.04 |
| 9.5% | $58.99 | $62.63 | $66.78 | $71.55 | $77.12 |
