Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MNRO
Even the conservative scenario ($37.81) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $37.81 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.4% | $46.31 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.4% | $61.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.75
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$46.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MNRO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $102.6M · 0.03B shares · net debt $45.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$46.31
+236.8% vs $13.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $56.24 | $60.56 | $65.75 | $72.11 | $80.10 |
| 8.4% | $47.86 | $50.87 | $54.38 | $58.55 | $63.55 |
| 9.4% | $41.60 | $43.80 | $46.31 | $49.22 | $52.61 |
| 10.4% | $36.74 | $38.41 | $40.29 | $42.41 | $44.84 |
| 11.4% | $32.87 | $34.17 | $35.61 | $37.22 | $39.03 |
