TGM's two-stage DCF values Maximus, Inc. (MMS) between $73.50 and $163.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $108.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$54.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 8.5% | $73.50 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 7.5% | $108.01 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 6.5% | $163.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $164.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$54.08
Market-Implied Growth
-7.5%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$73.50 – $163.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MMS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $299.9M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$108.01
+99.7% vs $54.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $54.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $146 | $167 | $195 | $234 | $292 |
| 6.5% | $112 | $125 | $141 | $161 | $188 |
| 7.5% | $89.87 | $98.12 | $108 | $120 | $135 |
| 8.5% | $73.72 | $79.51 | $86.25 | $94.20 | $104 |
| 9.5% | $61.63 | $65.87 | $70.71 | $76.29 | $82.79 |
