Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MMM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($81.76) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$166.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.5% | $45.38 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.5% | $58.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.5% | $81.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$166.14
Market-Implied Growth
+24.9%/yr
vs -10.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$58.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MMM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.52B shares · net debt $7.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$58.23
-65.0% vs $166.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $166.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $73.15 | $79.57 | $87.27 | $96.67 | $108 |
| 8.5% | $60.58 | $65.08 | $70.33 | $76.53 | $83.95 |
| 9.5% | $51.15 | $54.46 | $58.23 | $62.58 | $67.64 |
| 10.5% | $43.82 | $46.33 | $49.15 | $52.35 | $55.99 |
| 11.5% | $37.95 | $39.92 | $42.09 | $44.52 | $47.24 |
