Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MLGO
Even the conservative scenario ($18.86) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $18.86 |
| Base case | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $20.05 |
| Optimistic | 8.0%/yr | 6.5% | $21.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $22.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.15
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$20.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MLGO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1M · 0.01B shares · net cash $170.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.05
+536.7% vs $3.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $21.38 | $22.10 | $23.06 | $24.40 | $26.42 |
| 6.5% | $20.20 | $20.64 | $21.18 | $21.87 | $22.80 |
| 7.5% | $19.42 | $19.71 | $20.05 | $20.47 | $20.99 |
| 8.5% | $18.86 | $19.06 | $19.30 | $19.57 | $19.90 |
| 9.5% | $18.45 | $18.59 | $18.76 | $18.95 | $19.18 |
