TGM's two-stage DCF values Mesa Laboratories, Inc. (MLAB) between $91.24 and $178.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $126.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$135.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.5%/yr | 9.9% | $91.24 |
| Base case | 8.5%/yr | 8.9% | $126.60 |
| Optimistic | 11.5%/yr | 7.9% | $178.60 |
Current Price
$135.63
Market-Implied Growth
+9.9%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$91.24 – $178.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MLAB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $40.6M · 0.01B shares · net debt $124.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$126.60
-6.7% vs $135.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $135.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $161 | $177 | $197 | $221 | $253 |
| 7.9% | $132 | $142 | $155 | $170 | $189 |
| 8.9% | $110 | $118 | $127 | $137 | $149 |
| 9.9% | $93.65 | $99.36 | $106 | $113 | $122 |
| 10.9% | $80.76 | $85.14 | $90.04 | $95.54 | $102 |
