TGM's two-stage DCF values Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) between $11.11 and $19.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $14.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 10.1% | $11.11 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 9.1% | $14.50 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 8.1% | $19.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $9.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.80
Market-Implied Growth
+15.5%/yr
vs +9.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$11.11 – $19.45
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MITK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $30.4M · 0.05B shares · net cash $1.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.50
-18.5% vs $17.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $17.81 | $19.28 | $21.08 | $23.32 | $26.17 |
| 8.1% | $15.00 | $16.01 | $17.20 | $18.63 | $20.36 |
| 9.1% | $12.94 | $13.67 | $14.50 | $15.48 | $16.63 |
| 10.1% | $11.36 | $11.90 | $12.52 | $13.22 | $14.03 |
| 11.1% | $10.11 | $10.53 | $11.00 | $11.53 | $12.12 |
