TGM's two-stage DCF values The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) between $82.08 and $148.73 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $105.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$106.44 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $82.08 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.7% | $105.90 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.7% | $148.73 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $88.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$106.44
Market-Implied Growth
+2.1%/yr
vs +10.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$82.08 – $148.73
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MIDD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $550.1M · 0.05B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$105.90
-0.5% vs $106.44
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $106.44; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $132 | $142 | $154 | $168 | $184 |
| 9.7% | $111 | $118 | $127 | $136 | $148 |
| 10.7% | $93.77 | $99.49 | $106 | $113 | $121 |
| 11.7% | $80.30 | $84.79 | $89.75 | $95.27 | $101 |
| 12.7% | $69.24 | $72.83 | $76.77 | $81.10 | $85.90 |