TGM's two-stage DCF values Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK) between $99.01 and $166.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $123.05. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$129.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $99.01 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.0% | $123.05 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.0% | $166.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $82.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$129.46
Market-Implied Growth
+3.1%/yr
vs -6.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$99.01 – $166.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MHK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $647.9M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$123.05
-5.0% vs $129.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $129.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $150 | $161 | $175 | $190 | $210 |
| 9.0% | $128 | $136 | $145 | $156 | $168 |
| 10.0% | $110 | $116 | $123 | $131 | $140 |
| 11.0% | $96.56 | $101 | $106 | $112 | $119 |
| 12.0% | $85.49 | $89.15 | $93.18 | $97.66 | $103 |
