TGM's two-stage DCF values MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) between $16.46 and $38.97 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $24.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$13.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $16.46 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $24.07 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $38.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.03
Market-Implied Growth
-6.6%/yr
vs +0.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.46 – $38.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MGPI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $37.4M · 0.02B shares · net debt $233.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.07
+84.8% vs $13.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $34.34 | $39.92 | $47.34 | $57.74 | $73.32 |
| 6.5% | $25.27 | $28.62 | $32.80 | $38.17 | $45.33 |
| 7.5% | $19.22 | $21.43 | $24.07 | $27.30 | $31.33 |
| 8.5% | $14.91 | $16.45 | $18.26 | $20.38 | $22.93 |
| 9.5% | $11.67 | $12.80 | $14.10 | $15.59 | $17.33 |
