A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for MGM Resorts International (MGM) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$38.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.5% | $19.26 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.5% | $52.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $100.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.47
Market-Implied Growth
+21.5%/yr
vs +27.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MGM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.25B shares · net debt $29.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.26
-49.9% vs $38.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $45.86 | $56.37 | $68.63 | $83.10 | $100 |
| 9.5% | $23.89 | $31.58 | $40.37 | $50.50 | $62.30 |
| 10.5% | $6.88 | $12.71 | $19.26 | $26.68 | $35.14 |
| 11.5% | N/A | N/A | $2.91 | $8.53 | $14.84 |
| 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
