MGM Resorts International (MGM) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for MGM Resorts International (MGM) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$46.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.6% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.6% | $17.15 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.6% | $49.55 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $132.85 | |
Current Price
$46.57
Market-Implied Growth
+23.3%/yr
vs +30.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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MGM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MGM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.26B shares · net debt $29.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$103.99
+123.3% vs $46.57
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $162 | $177 | $194 | $215 | $239 |
| 9.6% | $120 | $131 | $143 | $156 | $172 |
| 10.6% | $87.85 | $95.45 | $104 | $114 | $125 |
| 11.6% | $62.38 | $68.03 | $74.31 | $81.32 | $89.19 |
| 12.6% | $41.82 | $46.13 | $50.85 | $56.07 | $61.87 |
About MGM Resorts International
MGM Resorts International, through its various divisions, manages and possesses casino, lodging, and entertainment complexes across the United States and Macau. The company's operations are segmented into three main areas: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its resort properties offer a comprehensive suite of amenities including gaming facilities, accommodation, convention spaces, dining options, entertainment venues, retail outlets, and more. Beyond traditional slots and table games, its casino activities also encompass online sports wagering and iGaming through its BetMGM platform. As of February 17, 2021, its extensive portfolio comprised 29 distinct hotel and gaming destinations. Notable assets include its properties on the Las Vegas Strip and the Fallen Oak golf course. The company caters to a diverse clientele, including high-stakes gamblers, vacationers, wholesale travel groups, business travelers, and organizational clients such as conventions, trade groups, and small conferences. Originally known as MGM MIRAGE, the firm rebranded to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. Established in 1986, MGM Resorts International is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- CEO
- William Joseph Hornbuckle