Why we don't show a single “fair value” for METC
Even the conservative scenario ($18.49) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$8.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.5% | $18.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.5% | $23.63 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.5% | $29.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.05
Market-Implied Growth
-8.4%/yr
vs +19.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$23.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for METC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $54.3M · 0.05B shares · net debt $11.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.63
+193.4% vs $8.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $28.32 | $30.18 | $32.34 | $34.89 | $37.95 |
| 9.5% | $24.44 | $25.80 | $27.35 | $29.14 | $31.22 |
| 10.5% | $21.44 | $22.47 | $23.63 | $24.94 | $26.43 |
| 11.5% | $19.05 | $19.85 | $20.74 | $21.73 | $22.85 |
| 12.5% | $17.11 | $17.74 | $18.44 | $19.21 | $20.07 |
