TGM's two-stage DCF values Methanex Corporation (MEOH) between $55.81 and $126.17 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $83.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$61.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 9.5% | $55.81 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 8.5% | $83.96 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 7.5% | $126.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$61.14
Market-Implied Growth
-1.0%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.81 – $126.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MEOH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $486.5M · 0.08B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$83.96
+37.3% vs $61.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $61.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $112 | $125 | $142 | $164 | $192 |
| 7.5% | $87.84 | $96.67 | $107 | $120 | $136 |
| 8.5% | $70.55 | $76.74 | $83.96 | $92.48 | $103 |
| 9.5% | $57.59 | $62.14 | $67.32 | $73.30 | $80.26 |
| 10.5% | $47.52 | $50.97 | $54.85 | $59.24 | $64.24 |
