TGM's two-stage DCF values MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) between $4.40 and $6.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $5.27. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 12.1% | $4.40 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 11.1% | $5.27 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 10.1% | $6.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.56
Market-Implied Growth
+1.8%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.40 – $6.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MDXG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $44.7M · 0.15B shares · net cash $146.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.27
+15.6% vs $4.56
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $6.00 | $6.28 | $6.60 | $6.97 | $7.40 |
| 10.1% | $5.40 | $5.61 | $5.85 | $6.11 | $6.42 |
| 11.1% | $4.93 | $5.09 | $5.27 | $5.47 | $5.70 |
| 12.1% | $4.55 | $4.67 | $4.81 | $4.97 | $5.14 |
| 13.1% | $4.23 | $4.33 | $4.45 | $4.57 | $4.70 |
