TGM's two-stage DCF values Medtronic plc (MDT) between $43.39 and $96.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $61.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$92.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $43.39 |
| Base case | 2.2%/yr | 7.5% | $61.81 |
| Optimistic | 5.2%/yr | 6.5% | $96.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $173.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$92.55
Market-Implied Growth
+9.7%/yr
vs +0.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$43.39 – $96.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MDT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 1.28B shares · net debt $26.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$61.81
-33.2% vs $92.55
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $92.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $85.92 | $99.01 | $116 | $141 | $177 |
| 6.5% | $64.62 | $72.48 | $82.30 | $94.92 | $112 |
| 7.5% | $50.42 | $55.60 | $61.81 | $69.39 | $78.86 |
| 8.5% | $40.28 | $43.92 | $48.15 | $53.15 | $59.14 |
| 9.5% | $32.68 | $35.35 | $38.39 | $41.90 | $45.98 |
