TGM's two-stage DCF values Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) between $102.11 and $164.57 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $128.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$118.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.1%/yr | 11.7% | $102.11 |
| Base case | 14.1%/yr | 10.7% | $128.36 |
| Optimistic | 17.1%/yr | 9.7% | $164.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $74.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$118.77
Market-Implied Growth
+12.0%/yr
vs +14.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$102.11 – $164.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $112.2M · 0.02B shares · net cash $83.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$128.36
+8.1% vs $118.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $118.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $152 | $161 | $171 | $184 | $198 |
| 9.7% | $132 | $139 | $147 | $156 | $166 |
| 10.7% | $118 | $123 | $128 | $135 | $142 |
| 11.7% | $106 | $110 | $114 | $119 | $124 |
| 12.7% | $95.73 | $98.93 | $102 | $106 | $111 |
