TGM's two-stage DCF values MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) between $13.83 and $21.20 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$19.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $13.83 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.4% | $16.43 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.4% | $21.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $11.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$19.41
Market-Implied Growth
+6.5%/yr
vs -11.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.83 – $21.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCFT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $24.3M · 0.02B shares · net cash $43.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.43
-15.4% vs $19.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $19.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $19.47 | $20.79 | $22.38 | $24.33 | $26.77 |
| 8.4% | $16.90 | $17.82 | $18.90 | $20.17 | $21.71 |
| 9.4% | $14.99 | $15.66 | $16.43 | $17.32 | $18.36 |
| 10.4% | $13.50 | $14.01 | $14.59 | $15.24 | $15.98 |
| 11.4% | $12.32 | $12.71 | $13.15 | $13.65 | $14.20 |
