TGM's two-stage DCF values McDonald's Corporation (MCD) between $97.88 and $241.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $152.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$255.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $97.88 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 7.5% | $152.66 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 6.5% | $241.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $287.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$255.81
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs +1.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$97.88 – $241.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.9B · 0.71B shares · net debt $39.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$152.66
-40.3% vs $255.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $255.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $214 | $247 | $292 | $354 | $447 |
| 6.5% | $160 | $180 | $205 | $237 | $280 |
| 7.5% | $124 | $137 | $153 | $172 | $196 |
| 8.5% | $97.85 | $107 | $118 | $131 | $146 |
| 9.5% | $78.50 | $85.29 | $93.03 | $102 | $112 |
