McDonald's Corporation (MCD) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put McDonald's Corporation (MCD)'s fair value in a range of $98.28 – $306.90 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $282.25 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $282.25, the market is pricing in roughly +15.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +5.8%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$282.25
Fair-Value Range
$98.28 – $306.90
Market-Implied Growth
+15.7%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
MCD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 0.71B shares · net debt $39.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$98.28
-65.2% vs $282.25
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $282.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $136 | $145 | $157 | $171 | $188 |
| 9.0% | $109 | $115 | $123 | $132 | $143 |
| 10.0% | $88.13 | $92.89 | $98.28 | $104 | $112 |
| 11.0% | $72.03 | $75.51 | $79.41 | $83.79 | $88.75 |
| 12.0% | $59.04 | $61.66 | $64.55 | $67.77 | $71.36 |
About McDonald's Corporation
McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Christopher J. Kempczinski