TGM's two-stage DCF values Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) between $10.07 and $15.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $12.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.4%/yr | 11.1% | $10.07 |
| Base case | 14.4%/yr | 10.1% | $12.28 |
| Optimistic | 17.4%/yr | 9.1% | $15.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$7.27
Market-Implied Growth
-2.8%/yr
vs +23.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.07 – $15.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MBLY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $377.0M · 0.82B shares · net cash $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$12.28
+68.9% vs $7.27
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $14.32 | $15.15 | $16.13 | $17.30 | $18.72 |
| 9.1% | $12.62 | $13.22 | $13.91 | $14.71 | $15.66 |
| 10.1% | $11.33 | $11.77 | $12.28 | $12.86 | $13.52 |
| 11.1% | $10.30 | $10.65 | $11.04 | $11.47 | $11.96 |
| 12.1% | $9.48 | $9.75 | $10.05 | $10.39 | $10.76 |
