TGM's two-stage DCF values Matson, Inc. (MATX) between $120.95 and $203.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $155.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$222.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.3% | $120.95 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 10.3% | $155.15 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 9.3% | $203.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $157.70 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$222.87
Market-Implied Growth
+12.1%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$120.95 – $203.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MATX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $359.9M · 0.03B shares · net debt $209.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$155.15
-30.4% vs $222.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $222.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $185 | $197 | $211 | $228 | $248 |
| 9.3% | $160 | $169 | $179 | $191 | $204 |
| 10.3% | $141 | $148 | $155 | $164 | $173 |
| 11.3% | $126 | $131 | $137 | $143 | $150 |
| 12.3% | $113 | $117 | $122 | $127 | $132 |
