TGM's two-stage DCF values Matson, Inc. (MATX) between $126.90 and $212.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $162.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$210.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 11.5% | $126.90 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 10.5% | $162.94 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 9.5% | $212.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $159.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$210.57
Market-Implied Growth
+11.4%/yr
vs +5.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$126.90 – $212.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MATX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $359.9M · 0.03B shares · net debt $209.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$162.94
-22.6% vs $210.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $210.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $194 | $206 | $221 | $238 | $258 |
| 9.5% | $168 | $177 | $188 | $199 | $213 |
| 10.5% | $148 | $155 | $163 | $172 | $182 |
| 11.5% | $132 | $138 | $144 | $150 | $158 |
| 12.5% | $119 | $124 | $128 | $134 | $139 |
