Masco Corporation (MAS) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Masco Corporation (MAS) between $33.09 and $57.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$79.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $33.09 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.6% | $41.87 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.6% | $57.69 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $63.26 | |
Current Price
$79.97
Market-Implied Growth
+15.4%/yr
vs +2.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$33.09 – $57.69
model output — not a price target
MAS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MAS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $886.5M · 0.20B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.05
-48.7% vs $79.97
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $79.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $52.58 | $55.31 | $58.48 | $62.21 | $66.68 |
| 9.6% | $44.45 | $46.36 | $48.54 | $51.04 | $53.96 |
| 10.6% | $38.11 | $39.49 | $41.05 | $42.81 | $44.81 |
| 11.6% | $33.03 | $34.06 | $35.20 | $36.48 | $37.91 |
| 12.6% | $28.87 | $29.65 | $30.51 | $31.46 | $32.51 |
About Masco Corporation
Masco Corporation is a prominent global manufacturer and distributor of home improvement and building products, serving markets across North America, Europe, and other international regions. The company operates through two main segments. Its Plumbing Products division offers a vast array of items, from fixtures like faucets, showerheads, and valves to comprehensive bathing solutions such as tubs, shower bases, sinks, and toilets. This segment also provides high-end offerings like spas, exercise pools, and fitness systems, alongside crucial plumbing system components made from brass, copper, and composites, as well as connected water technologies, thermoplastic solutions, and PEX tubing. These products are sold under numerous recognized brands, including DELTA, HANSGROHE, KRAUS, HOT SPRING, and ENDLESS POOLS. The Decorative Architectural Products segment enhances both the aesthetic and functional aspects of homes. Its portfolio includes various paints, primers, specialty coatings, stains, and waterproofing products, along with associated applicators. It also supplies diverse cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, closet organization systems, and picture hanging accessories. Additionally, this segment provides decorative bath hardware, mirrors, shower doors, and a wide selection of indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, such as ceiling fans, landscape lighting, and LED systems. Key brands in this segment include BEHR, KILZ, LIBERTY, and KICHLER. Masco distributes its extensive product range through a broad network of channels, encompassing plumbing, heating, and hardware wholesalers; home centers and online retailers; independent hardware stores; electrical and landscape distributors; lighting showrooms; building supply outlets; and various mass merchandisers. Masco Corporation was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Livonia, Michigan.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- CEO
- Jonathon J. Nudi